So after much Covid delay it is finally time for the Augusta Masters and I for one am very excited. As always it’s incredibly open and I’m going to attempt to breakdown some of the competitors chances and odds and perhaps provide a decent tip or two.

The favourite this year is Bryson DeChambeau, with the longest drive on the tour and a US open win by 6 strokes in September it’s easy to see why, however, while driving distance is important at the masters I believe approach distance and short play to be more important with such testing greens, therefore I believe there are better options that Bryson at 8/1.

Dustin Johnson is an incredible golfer who it’s hard to believe will never win a Masters at some point however also at a very short price of 9/1 I feel there are better options available.

My pick of the favourites is the 26 year old Jon Rahm who celebrated his birthday with this absolutely unbelievable shot.

From pond to pin! Rahm skips to a hole-in-one on No. 16 at #themasters pic.twitter.com/JNNPWgW9OP

— The Masters (@TheMasters) November 10, 2020

He’s an incredible young golfer with a great track record at the masters, coming in off back to back top 10s. He has a great drive, a decent approach game and I feel at 10/1 he has as a good a chance as anyone.

So what about some bigger prices, that’s what I really love about the masters finding some top punts.

I believe the single biggest factor in predicitong the masters is course form, and there is nobody playing with greater course form than the legend that is 5 time and reigning champion Tiger Woods. Never rule him out, is it likely that he wins? no, but is it a better chance than the 1 in 51 needed for the 50/1 on offer to be a profitable bet. definitely.

My second big price pick is The former world number 1, US Open champion, Olympic gold medalist and twice second place finisher at Augusta, Justin Rose. He is available at a whopping 70/1. Seriously. Sure last year he missed the cut for the first time but I fully expect him to bounce back with a high finish this year and I would in no way be surprised to see him win the tournament outright. An each way bet seems a solid option too.

Finally my hail mary pick, Henrik Stenson at 200/1 he’s a fantastic golfer, the first ever Nordic major winner, with a peak masters finish of 5th, 200/1 is an insult frankly.

So in conclusion these are my tips.

Jon Rahm 10/1 1 unit
Tiger Woods 50/1 0.5 units
Justin Rose 70/1 0.5 units
Henrik Stenson 200/1 0.25 units

So…

I made this blog because I love sport and I enjoy writing, it seemed like the perfect way to get my thoughts on sport out there and also try to improve as a sports writer. However, I didn’t expect that the world would be thrown into turmoil by Covid-19, and I certainly didn’t expect I’d be sitting here some 8 months on, still in lockdown and still with no end in sight.

It’s hard to focus on writing about sport when so much else is going on in the world and, of course, most of the sport was stopped all together. My last post was about the Chess candidates tournament and that was unfortunately stopped half way through, however it is expected to resume on November 1st.

So what now? well sport is definitely back in full swing;

the Lakers just won the NBA championship, taking Lebron to 4 titles and finals MVPs. My team the Houston Rockets once again dissapointed and failed to make their extreme small ball approach work.

The NFL is underway with my team the Seahawks currently 5-0 with the almighty Russell Wilson and looking like real Superbowl contenders.

English football is also back up and running for the new season with Everton sitting atop the Premier League table and my team Ipswich Town first in League 1.

Baseball is probably still going on but who in their right mind cares? (sorry baseball fans ;))

Plus, of course Tennis, Darts, Snooker, Rugby, MMA, Boxing, Cricket and Golf have all been ticking away with Nadal equalling Roger’s grand slam record this weekend and The Masters due to start at Augusta next month, which may well get a post of it’s own.

So with all that said, I feel like it’s high time I got back to writing about sport, and I’m bloody excited to escape in the sporting world and forget about this awful situation for a while. Stay safe out there.

Jack

Is Chess a Sport? I dunno if it is by definition but it’s highly competitive and highly skilled so I would consider it a sport, and this is my site so…

Anyway, I love chess, I’m not very good, around 1300 elo, but I love watching the game played at the highest level it’s truly incredible. Also with the world of sport grinding to a halt for coronavirus about the only thing still due to happen is the candidates tournament which starts tomorrow, so I thought I’d give my thoughts on it.

The tournament is an 8 man double round robin tournament. It’s played between 8 qualifiers and the winner will challenge Magnus Carlsen for the world championship later in the year. The 8 players are;
Fabiano Caruana, the world number 2 and the 2018 World Championship Challenger bidding for a second shot at Magnus. Last time he gave Magnus a real run for his money in the match, drawing all 12 classical games despite having many winning chances before ultimately losing on rapid tiebreak games.Perhaps if he wins the candidates again he can take more advantage of his chances in classical chess and win the world championship avoiding tie breaks.

Ding Liren feels like the young up and comer in the field despite being the same age as Fabiano and only 2 years younger than Magnus. He’s definitely risen in notoriety over the last couple of years owing somewhat to a terrific rise in rating, his first appearance at the candidates tournament in 2018 and what was a record 100 game unbeaten streak, since beaten by Magnus Carlsen, he was the only undefeated player at the 2018 candidates and has a real chance of winning this year.

This is the World number 4 Alexander Grischuk’s 5th appearance at the candidates tournament and he’s yet to make a world championship match, he’s obviously a tremendously talented player but it would be surprising to see him win.

Unless my research fails me the world number 5 Ian Nepomniachtchi has never been to the candidates tournament before. He’s a good classical player but perhaps best known for his blitz and rapid pedigree. I would be surprised to see him win but he should put up a decent fight.

The World number 8 Maxime Vachier-Lagrave gained entry to his first Candidates tournament following the withdrawal of Radjabov, due to concerns over coronavirus and a belief that the tournament should be postponed. Despite only getting in as a wildcard MVL is no pushover and will put up a good fight in this tournament, He’s unlikely to have the classical chess ability to compete with Fabi or Ding but he’s far from out of his depth against the field. It would be a fantastic underdog story if he won however unlikely it may be.

The world number 11 Anish Giri is my dark horse for the tournament, despite a rating lower than that of most of the competitors I think the format suits him.Despite only being 25 and not making the 2018 candidates he has appeared in one before, He played in the 2016 candidates tournament drawing all 14 games in a very giri fashion. Well known and almost mocked for his tendency to draw games I think Giri is somewhat overlooked and in a double round robin tournament, if he can pull off two draws against the likes of Fabi and Ding and pick up a few wins against the lower rated players in the tournament, which is entirely possible with him being 4 years older and presumably better/more experienced than his last appearance, he could cause a big upset. By no means do I make him the favourite to win the tournament outright but I give him a chance and I believe he’ll do well.

World number 12 Wang Hao qualified for the tournament by winning the Grand Swiss, which is no mean feat however it’s a very different format to this one. At 30 years old, this is his first candidates tournament and I would make him a big outsider for this.

At just 22 years old Kirill Alekseenko is the only player in the tournament below 2700 rating, he was the wildcard selection for the tournament made eligible by finishing third in the Grand Swiss. He’s a young player with a lot of talent but it’s a tough ask for him to remain competitive in this field and he will be expected to finish 8th by most but as a rising star of the game perhaps he has improved enough to shock the world.

I think that the tournament is incredibly close, and with Fabiano such a big favourite, my tips would be a bet on ding liren at 3.25 (9/4) as well as Anish giri at 12.00 (11/1)

So last week I correctly tipped Tyson Fury to beat Wilder at 2.05 odds in my first post to this site, so far so good.

This week we move away from the boxing, at least for now, and take a look to darts. The UK open starts next weekend and this is one of my favourite tournaments of the year. It’s the first ranking major of the season and is really where the season kicks into gear for me. It also features all 128 tour card holders plus several amateur qualifiers and is played over just 3 days, meaning that literally anybody on the tour can have a good run or even win the tournament.

Last year saw Nathan Aspinall win his first TV major beating Rob Cross in the final, with players such as Josh Payne, Simon Stevenson and Ross Smith making the quarter finals as outsiders. So I’m going to take a look at the players in this tournament and the odds on offer and give my thoughts on their chances.

So lets start with the favourite for the tournament, Michael Van Gerwen. MVG is currently available at 3.00 (2/1) with several bookmakers which are odds we’ve rarely seen on MVG for a long time, which just goes to show that the hype surrounding him is perhaps fading, just a little. Is he still the best player in the world? I believe he is. Would I back him at 2/1 when he hasn’t won a tournament all year including pro tours? No I wouldn’t.

Next up we’ve got the three players who on merit, not taking into account MVG’s usual dominance, should be favourites for the tournament. Peter Wright, Nathan Aspinall and Gerwyn Price.

Peter Wright has won the last 2 TV tournaments in the Masters and World Championships as well as a pro tour. So far this year he has averaged 101.46 on the pro tour, the highest of anyone. He does however sit second bottom in the premier league after 4 weeks on the back of a thumping at the hands of Gerwyn Price last night. He’s currently available at 7.5 (13/2) and I won’t be backing him at that price personally but I don’t think it’s an awful bet. I just think Peter Wright is historically inconsistant and I don’t see that just going away because he won the worlds.

Which brings us nicely on to Gerwyn Price, he has had a nice start on the pro tour, winning one and being runner up twice, he sits tied with three other players for third in the premier league, and for me has a great chance to win this. He fell short as runner up to Peter Wright a couple of years ago and will be looking to avenge that. He’s currently 9.00 (8/1) with a number of bookmakers and is one on my shortlist.

Next up we have Nathan Aspinall, he has very quickly gone from having £10 to his name and almost quitting to darts to being one of the premier talents in the game. He won this event last year as well as the US darts masters. He’s currently joint on points with MVG at the top of the premier league having beaten Durrant this week and Gerwen last week and he has won a pro tour event this year. He’s in good form and is available as big as 18/1 with Betfred and 16/1 everywhere else. At 18/1 and probably even 16/1 he seems a great bet, winning consecutive UK opens would be a great achievement joining legends Phil Taylor, MVG and RVB as the only men to do it, and it’s a big ask but it’s entirely doable with some of the other big names out of form and Aspinall only growing in confidence.

We’ve wrapped up the favourites for the tournament and it’s 20/1 bar I’ll now do a rapid fire run down of some of the other front runners as well as some outsiders I like the look of before giving my definitive selections.

Gary Anderson is 20/1 he’s struggled with back problems and as he gets older and loses the fire in his belly he becomes more inconsistant and harder to back especially over such a tough format.

Rob Cross is tragically out of form he currently has the 27th highest pro tour average and is sitting tied for second last in the premier league, but he’s a great player at his best and is available at a massive 25/1 with a number of bookies so while I won’t be backing him I think he has a chance.

Michael Smith managed to hit a 9 darter and still average below 90 last night, for me he’s too inconsistant and struggles to get over the line in majors.

Glen Durrant is a great player with an almost James Wade like consistency about him, I think at 28/1 with ladbrokes he’s a good shout.

Beyond these we have some of the bigger odds outsiders. My first pick of these is Krzysztof Ratajski, Krzysztof has been increasingly impressing me for a long time. Last year he won a european tour and a couple of players championship events on the pro tour, and he’s already picked up another pro tour event this year. He’s yet to really make his mark in a big tv event but the UK open is often the place to do it with it’s unpredictable draw and rapid fire multi board setup. With a sportsbook called “Sportingbet” he’s available at a huge 50/1 and for me that’s insane odds for a player as good and consistently solid as Ratajski.

and now for my 2 huge odds mega punts, they call it the FA cup of darts, I call it the Grand national of darts.

Jeff Smith. Yep. Jeff Smith. He is a former BDO world championship runner up and semi finalist, he has been to the last 16 of the grand slam, he’s played at the US world series event a couple of times, that’s his resume. However since winning his tour card he’s been playing well on the floor making the final in event 1 and he’s put in some good averages. He’s 300/1 at the moment and while I don’t think he’ll win the tournament outright I don’t think he’s an awful punt at huge odds especially if cash out is available.

Devon Petersen has been to the world championship last 16 twice and the UK open quarter finals once, he’s the kind of player who has just about survived in the top 64 for a number of years and isn’t the sort of player you back to win majors. However, so far this year he has the 6th highest pro tour average at 98 and has played some good stuff, he’s made a run in this tournament before and is entirely capable of doing it again. He’s available at 250/1 with several bookmakers, and as a longshot it’s not an awful bet especially if cash out is available.

So in conclusion my bets for this event will be;

Nathan Aspinall 18/1 0.5 units

Krzysztof Ratajski 50/1 0.5 units

Devon Petersen 250/1 0.25 units

Jeff Smith 300/1 0.25 units

So it’s finally time for the rematch all boxing fans have been waiting for, Mayweather Pacquiao II… Nah probably not that one come to think of it.

Fury vs Wilder II is this weekend and it has everything. A 6ft 9 unorthodox master boxer from manchester, his beautiful footwork and head movement coupled with his enormous size, mind games and awkwardness make him undoubtedly the best heavyweight boxer of his generation.

However there’s one slight problem, his opponent is an animal, the most obscenely powerful one punch knock out artist I’ve ever seen, he can be comprehensively outboxed for 12 rounds and pull it out of the bag with a single punch, as we so nearly saw in the first fight. There have been so many incredible power punchers at heavyweight throughout history but usually as the rounds go on they tire and that power becomes less of a threat. Not Wilder. His power is there the full 36 minutes, this is what makes him so dangerous despite his less than elite level boxing ability.

“But we already know all this what’s new?” I hear you ask. Fair Point. Well the differences between the first fight and this one are what makes it so interesting. On the one hand Fury went into the first fight off the back of a 3 year absence from the ring, having ballooned up in weight and battled with cocaine and alcohol addiction as well as mental health problems. By rights shouldn’t of been going anywhere near Wilder, which would make you assume, that now he’s shaken off some of that rust, he’ll be far better and will comfortably outbox wilder for 12 rounds.

But on the other hand, Fury looked flat in his last fight against Otto Wallin and suffered a horrendous cut above his eye. He’s changed trainer switching from Ben Davison, who helped him come back from depression and obesity to outbox Wilder in a controversial draw last time, and is instead training with Javan Steward and is aiming to ‘improve his power’ and get wilder out of there, which to me seems like a recipe for disaster if true, although I’m far from convinced it is.

So what’s my assessment? The honest answer is I’m not all too sure, before fury fought Wallin I probably had Fury 75% to win this, but now I think it’s much closer. I think if Fury fights smart, doesn’t look as flat as he did against Wallin, avoids the power punches of Wilder, maybe utilises his supposed improved power to try and catch wilder off balance on the counter, as he so often is after lunging in, then he can easily box to a decision win or perhaps a late stoppage. But all it takes is one mistake, if he switches off for even a second, gets complacent, he’ll be on his back like he was in the twelfth last time, and this time he probably won’t make the count. Alternatively, he could overthink the robbery last time, truly believe that he has to get the knock out to win, go looking for it and get laid out like the last 40 guys Wilder has fought.

The truth is it’s impossible to know, and that’s why we watch, but I can make a prediction and I believe Fury is Somewhere between 55 and 60% to win this. In a rematch between a boxer and a puncher the boxer usually wins and fury is one hell of a boxer, in principle the boxer should be able to take what he learnt from the first fight and apply it in the second fight to outbox his opponent more convincingly, but it’s hard to apply ‘trends’ to a fight between two fighters who are so unique.

Right now you can still get a shade over even money on Tyson Fury with 2.05 odds (21/20 if fractions are more your thing) in the UK with Unibet, Betfair and 888sport and at that price I think he’s worth a bet, I wouldn’t personally take anything less than even money though. Alternatively I think Fury by Decision at 2.75 (7/4) is a good bet if you want something with a little better odds, but just be prepared for that late stoppage to ruin your night if you do. Thanks for reading and enjoy the fight 🙂