Is Chess a Sport? I dunno if it is by definition but it’s highly competitive and highly skilled so I would consider it a sport, and this is my site so…
Anyway, I love chess, I’m not very good, around 1300 elo, but I love watching the game played at the highest level it’s truly incredible. Also with the world of sport grinding to a halt for coronavirus about the only thing still due to happen is the candidates tournament which starts tomorrow, so I thought I’d give my thoughts on it.
The tournament is an 8 man double round robin tournament. It’s played between 8 qualifiers and the winner will challenge Magnus Carlsen for the world championship later in the year. The 8 players are;
Fabiano Caruana, the world number 2 and the 2018 World Championship Challenger bidding for a second shot at Magnus. Last time he gave Magnus a real run for his money in the match, drawing all 12 classical games despite having many winning chances before ultimately losing on rapid tiebreak games.Perhaps if he wins the candidates again he can take more advantage of his chances in classical chess and win the world championship avoiding tie breaks.
Ding Liren feels like the young up and comer in the field despite being the same age as Fabiano and only 2 years younger than Magnus. He’s definitely risen in notoriety over the last couple of years owing somewhat to a terrific rise in rating, his first appearance at the candidates tournament in 2018 and what was a record 100 game unbeaten streak, since beaten by Magnus Carlsen, he was the only undefeated player at the 2018 candidates and has a real chance of winning this year.
This is the World number 4 Alexander Grischuk’s 5th appearance at the candidates tournament and he’s yet to make a world championship match, he’s obviously a tremendously talented player but it would be surprising to see him win.
Unless my research fails me the world number 5 Ian Nepomniachtchi has never been to the candidates tournament before. He’s a good classical player but perhaps best known for his blitz and rapid pedigree. I would be surprised to see him win but he should put up a decent fight.
The World number 8 Maxime Vachier-Lagrave gained entry to his first Candidates tournament following the withdrawal of Radjabov, due to concerns over coronavirus and a belief that the tournament should be postponed. Despite only getting in as a wildcard MVL is no pushover and will put up a good fight in this tournament, He’s unlikely to have the classical chess ability to compete with Fabi or Ding but he’s far from out of his depth against the field. It would be a fantastic underdog story if he won however unlikely it may be.
The world number 11 Anish Giri is my dark horse for the tournament, despite a rating lower than that of most of the competitors I think the format suits him.Despite only being 25 and not making the 2018 candidates he has appeared in one before, He played in the 2016 candidates tournament drawing all 14 games in a very giri fashion. Well known and almost mocked for his tendency to draw games I think Giri is somewhat overlooked and in a double round robin tournament, if he can pull off two draws against the likes of Fabi and Ding and pick up a few wins against the lower rated players in the tournament, which is entirely possible with him being 4 years older and presumably better/more experienced than his last appearance, he could cause a big upset. By no means do I make him the favourite to win the tournament outright but I give him a chance and I believe he’ll do well.
World number 12 Wang Hao qualified for the tournament by winning the Grand Swiss, which is no mean feat however it’s a very different format to this one. At 30 years old, this is his first candidates tournament and I would make him a big outsider for this.
At just 22 years old Kirill Alekseenko is the only player in the tournament below 2700 rating, he was the wildcard selection for the tournament made eligible by finishing third in the Grand Swiss. He’s a young player with a lot of talent but it’s a tough ask for him to remain competitive in this field and he will be expected to finish 8th by most but as a rising star of the game perhaps he has improved enough to shock the world.
I think that the tournament is incredibly close, and with Fabiano such a big favourite, my tips would be a bet on ding liren at 3.25 (9/4) as well as Anish giri at 12.00 (11/1)
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