So it’s finally time for the rematch all boxing fans have been waiting for, Mayweather Pacquiao II… Nah probably not that one come to think of it.
Fury vs Wilder II is this weekend and it has everything. A 6ft 9 unorthodox master boxer from manchester, his beautiful footwork and head movement coupled with his enormous size, mind games and awkwardness make him undoubtedly the best heavyweight boxer of his generation.
However there’s one slight problem, his opponent is an animal, the most obscenely powerful one punch knock out artist I’ve ever seen, he can be comprehensively outboxed for 12 rounds and pull it out of the bag with a single punch, as we so nearly saw in the first fight. There have been so many incredible power punchers at heavyweight throughout history but usually as the rounds go on they tire and that power becomes less of a threat. Not Wilder. His power is there the full 36 minutes, this is what makes him so dangerous despite his less than elite level boxing ability.
“But we already know all this what’s new?” I hear you ask. Fair Point. Well the differences between the first fight and this one are what makes it so interesting. On the one hand Fury went into the first fight off the back of a 3 year absence from the ring, having ballooned up in weight and battled with cocaine and alcohol addiction as well as mental health problems. By rights shouldn’t of been going anywhere near Wilder, which would make you assume, that now he’s shaken off some of that rust, he’ll be far better and will comfortably outbox wilder for 12 rounds.
But on the other hand, Fury looked flat in his last fight against Otto Wallin and suffered a horrendous cut above his eye. He’s changed trainer switching from Ben Davison, who helped him come back from depression and obesity to outbox Wilder in a controversial draw last time, and is instead training with Javan Steward and is aiming to ‘improve his power’ and get wilder out of there, which to me seems like a recipe for disaster if true, although I’m far from convinced it is.
So what’s my assessment? The honest answer is I’m not all too sure, before fury fought Wallin I probably had Fury 75% to win this, but now I think it’s much closer. I think if Fury fights smart, doesn’t look as flat as he did against Wallin, avoids the power punches of Wilder, maybe utilises his supposed improved power to try and catch wilder off balance on the counter, as he so often is after lunging in, then he can easily box to a decision win or perhaps a late stoppage. But all it takes is one mistake, if he switches off for even a second, gets complacent, he’ll be on his back like he was in the twelfth last time, and this time he probably won’t make the count. Alternatively, he could overthink the robbery last time, truly believe that he has to get the knock out to win, go looking for it and get laid out like the last 40 guys Wilder has fought.
The truth is it’s impossible to know, and that’s why we watch, but I can make a prediction and I believe Fury is Somewhere between 55 and 60% to win this. In a rematch between a boxer and a puncher the boxer usually wins and fury is one hell of a boxer, in principle the boxer should be able to take what he learnt from the first fight and apply it in the second fight to outbox his opponent more convincingly, but it’s hard to apply ‘trends’ to a fight between two fighters who are so unique.
Right now you can still get a shade over even money on Tyson Fury with 2.05 odds (21/20 if fractions are more your thing) in the UK with Unibet, Betfair and 888sport and at that price I think he’s worth a bet, I wouldn’t personally take anything less than even money though. Alternatively I think Fury by Decision at 2.75 (7/4) is a good bet if you want something with a little better odds, but just be prepared for that late stoppage to ruin your night if you do. Thanks for reading and enjoy the fight 🙂
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